Which Slots Have The Best Odds
Statistics can tell us a lot. They can tell us how likely we are to be struck by lightning in our lifetime (odds at 1 in 3,000, getting slimmer each day you go without being struck) or how likely we are to be bitten by a shark (odds at 1 in 11.5 million) or even how likely it is that we might win the lottery (odds at 1 in 13,983,816). These events are often cited as being down to luck, but most things that require luck actually rely on odds, too.
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Take casino games, for instance. Each game has a set of odds of achieving victory, some of which can be altered throughout the game. Even games that rely solely on chance and luck have odds attached, meaning that strategies can be developed. So, what are the casino games with the best odds?
Roulette
Roulette is commonly known as a game that is solely down to luck. You spin the wheel and nothing you do can affect the outcome of where the ball lands. So, what are the odds of winning at roulette? Well, that depends on what kind of rules you’re playing by. There are two main kinds: European roulette and American roulette. European roulette offers better odds to players by only having one green zero slot, while American rules roulette has the green zero and the green double zero.
Which Casino Slots Have The Best Odds
The standard bet on roulette is one that gives you roughly 50/50 odds – so an even/odd split, numbers 1-18/19-36, or blacks or reds. In European roulette, the odds of winning these bets are 1.055 to 1. For American roulette, they are 1.111 to 1. Not a huge difference, but it can be enough. For a single bet, such as 17 black, the odds of winning are 36 to 1 on the European rules and 37 to 1 on American rules. Given the commonality of betting red/black or even/odd, roulette has the best odds of winning.
Blackjack
Blackjack also has a set of odds associated with winning. The game takes a considerable deal more skill than roulette, but there are certain elements of the game that are fixed in place. The wiggle room for players is smaller than games such as poker, so the odds are more straightforward. For instance, the probability of an outright win in blackjack is 42.22%. The figure is near enough evens, accounting for the house edge.
For a tie, the probability drops down to 8.48%, while a loss has a probability of 49.10%. Many online games omit the ability to tie, so the probability of winning in that case would be 46.36%. Indeed, mathematicians who have studied blackjack have found that there is no way of improving your odds for the next hand based on the outcome of the current hand. So, when playing blackjack, it’s important to consider that each hand has its own probabilities of a victory, and that probability is on the smaller side of 50/50.
Poker
Poker is more difficult when it comes to the odds of winning. Each round changes the odds as you can judge them based on what you could possibly create based on the cards you can see in your hand and the hole cards on the table, and the cards in the deck that you can’t see. So, let’s say you have two cards in your hand, and four cards have been dealt in the flop and turn. This leaves 46 cards left in the deck that could help you achieve the winning flush. Out of the 46 cards in the deck, nine of them will bring you victory. So, you have a 37 to 9 chance of getting the flush, or a 4 to 1 chance of that particular hand. This theory can be duplicated across different combinations of winning hands.
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There is as much likelihood of getting a straight flush as a royal flush, with the probability each turn that the next card will be the one you need dwindling. The closer you are to completing the flush, the less likely it will be that the next card dealt will be what you need. The reason poker is susceptible to rising odds is that each turn impacts the succeeding turn. So, the odds will change continuously throughout the game. This is not the case with blackjack, as each hand resets the odds. The strategy doesn’t come down to anticipating what comes next, it comes down to adjusting your wager depending on how likely it is that the cards you need will appear.
Slots
The difference between slots and poker in terms of skill needed varies greatly, but it doesn’t mean that there isn’t a set of odds that could help you plot a strategy for both. Take three-reel slots, where you need three of the same symbols out of 20 different symbols. The odds of getting one symbol is 1 in 20; the odds of getting the second one rise to 1 in 400, while the odds of achieving the final symbol can be 1 in 8,000. There are thus 8,000 combinations possible in a three-reel slot game – meaning the tension rises with each spin.
The range of online video slots available does alter the odds of winning – as some games have provisions to Win Both Ways across the payline or even Win Anywhere Along the Payline. This slashes the odds as the combinations that result in a win are more flexible. The development of online casino means that the standard gameplay of slots can be modified and can be made trickier for the player or can help the player with more favorable odds, which would be reflected in the game.
Almost any game can be reverted down to probabilities. While some are straightforward, such as flipping a coin or spinning the roulette wheel, others can be more complex as each previous turn impacts the next one. Most casino games have odds – whether it’s the odds of outright winning against the house or the odds of achieving something in the next turn. Identifying these odds can help you comprehend each game better and perhaps even be able to play them better – or plan a strategy around your understanding of the way the odds work.
- Appendices
- Slots Analysis
- Miscellaneous
Introduction
The following table ranks the Las Vegas casinos according to the looseness of their video display reeled nickel slot machines. The returns are based on a sampling of five different types of machines. The data collected goes back as far as October 2001 so the information is a bit dated.
Las Vegas 5 Cent Slot Survey
| Rank | Casino | Average Return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palms | 93.42% |
| 2 | Gold Coast | 92.84% |
| 3 | Sahara | 92.81% |
| 4 (tie) | Bourbon Street | 92.63% |
| 4 (tie) | Imperial Palace | 92.63% |
| 4 (tie) | Slots a Fun | 92.63% |
| 7 | Key Largo | 92.60% |
| 8 | Western | 92.57% |
| 9 | Ellis Island | 92.56% |
| 10 | El Cortez | 92.56% |
| 11 | Orleans | 92.56% |
| 12 | Circus Circus | 92.56% |
| 13 | Gold Spike | 92.55% |
| 14 | Fitzgeralds | 92.54% |
| 15 | Fiesta - Rancho | 92.53% |
| 16 | Arizona Charlie's East | 92.51% |
| 17 | Barbary Coast | 92.50% |
| 18 | Terrible's | 92.49% |
| 19 | Arizona Charlie's | 92.49% |
| 20 | Hard Rock | 92.47% |
| 21 | Town Hall | 92.47% |
| 22 | Longhorn | 92.47% |
| 23 | Riviera | 92.23% |
| 24 | California | 92.14% |
| 25 | Lady Luck | 92.10% |
| 26 | Nevada Palace | 92.06% |
| 27 | Plaza | 91.94% |
| 28 | Luxor | 91.92% |
| 29 | Paris | 91.92% |
| 30 | San Remo | 91.88% |
| 31 | Excalibur | 91.84% |
| 32 | Palace Station | 91.84% |
| 33 | Ballys | 91.82% |
| 34 | Las Vegas Club | 91.76% |
| 35 | Four Queens | 91.75% |
| 36 | Texas Station | 91.71% |
| 37 | Casino Royale | 91.67% |
| 38 | Boulder Station | 91.55% |
| 39 | Aladdin | 91.5% |
| 40 | O'sheas | 91.48% |
| 41 | Hilton | 91.40% |
| 42 | Boardwalk | 91.28% |
| 43 | New York New York | 90.99% |
| 44 | Horseshoe | 90.96% |
| 45 | Sam's Town | 90.89% |
| 46 | Santa Fe Station | 90.87% |
| 47 | Flamingo | 90.86% |
| 48 | Golden Nugget | 90.85% |
| 49 | Stratosphere | 90.8% |
| 50 | Tropicana | 90.71% |
| 51 | Golden Gate | 90.64% |
| 52 | Silverton | 90.57% |
| 53 | Main Street Station | 90.56% |
| 54 | Westward Ho | 90.40% |
| 55 | Fremont | 90.37% |
| 56 | Castaways | 90.36% |
| 57 | Monte Carlo | 90.24% |
| 58 | Stardust | 89.97% |
| 59 | Frontier | 89.91% |
| 60 | MGM Grand | 89.81% |
| 61 | Harrahs | 89.32% |
| 62 | Treasure Island | 89.32% |
| 63 | Mirage | 89.3% |
| 64 | Caesars Palace | 89.05% |
| 65 | Mandalay Bay | 88.87% |
| 66 | Rio | 88.72% |
| 67 | La Bayou | 88.26% |
| 68 | Mermaids | 88.26% |
| 69 | Bellagio | 87.42% |
| 70 | Venetian | 86.66% |
| 71 | Airport | 85.02% |
Excluded Casinos
The Suncoast and Rampart Casino in Summerlin do not allow playing slots and taking notes at the same time. I can not include any casino that prohibits the method in which I gather data.
Location Averages
The next table shows the average return by location.
Returns by Region
| Location | Average Return |
|---|---|
| Off strip | 92.07% |
| Downtown | 91.66% |
| Strip | 91.47% |
| Total | 91.74% |
The above sign can be found across the street from the Palms. Although I did the study Anthony Curtis published it in the LasVegas Advisor, which is how it become well known. The'...' in the sign encompases quite a bit of information,which was conveniently left off the sign. Actually the study only says that the Palms had the lowest nickel video slotsof the casinos surveyed in Las Vegas. The small print at thebottom says, 'Independent study conducted between November2001-February 2002 on Austin Powers, Fortune Cookie, Reel'em In, and Wheel of Fortune games. They left off LeopardSpots, and the study began in October.
Observations
There seemed to be no truth behind slot placement myths. Machines on the end of a bank did no better on average than those in the middle. There was also no correlation between return and proximity to such things as the main door, table game pit, high traffic areas, and low traffic areas.
Most casinos were very consistent in their slot returns.If one nickel machine had a return of x% then all others like it also returned x%. However some casinos did mix up loose and tight machines, most notably Treasure Island and the California casinos.
Methodology
A kind and anonymous source provided me with par sheets for the games in question. The EPROM (Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory) chip is what tells the machine the order of the symbols on the reel, in some cases how the stops are weighted, how much each winning combination pays, and any other pertinent information about how much the machine pays.It is up to the slot manager to select which EPROM chip to order according to the return percentage desired. On atypical game there might be about 8 different possible return percentages, ranging from about 85% to 98%.
Each of the different par sheets has five sets of distinct reels. On video display slots the stops are not weighted; in other words all stops are equally likely. The distribution of each symbol on each reel is what determines the theoretical return of the machine. For example a higher paying machine may have more of the higher paying symbols.
On the machine itself three consecutive symbols arevisible on five different reels. By comparing actualobservations of results to the par sheets it is possible todetermine which reels the machine uses, and thus which par sheet and which return. There are various three-symbol combinations that appear in at least one but not all par sheets. So if one of these combinations occurs on an actualmachine it narrows down the possible par sheets. By playingenough the player can narrow down the possible par sheets tojust one.
Which Casino Slots Have The Best Odds
To help identify the unique combinations I wrote a computer program for each game, which had the exact reel order of all 5 reels of all the par sheets. The program then counted the number of par sheets with each possible three-symbol combination. If the number was greater than 0 and less than the maximum then that combination was identified along with the associated par sheets it belonged to.
It is then a matter of simply playing the game and comparing the outcomes to the list of partially unique combinations. It only takes about 5-10 plays per machine to narrow down the possibilities to just one par sheet.
The averages in the table are actually an average of averages. For each kind of machine at each casino I took an average return. Then I took the average of these averages over the five kinds of machines I tested for.
Slot Machine Definition
There is some confusion about what constitutes a 'slot machine' or 'slot.' My definition, and that of most gamblers, is a gambling machine with either actual spinning reels or video representations of the them.
People in the gaming business and regulators generally refer to a slot machine as any gambling machine, including reeled slots, video poker, video keno, video blackjack,etc.. For purposes of statistics both casino managers and regulators combine all the electronic gambling machines together. For example, the Slot Chart in Casino Player magazine and reports by the Nevada Gaming Control Board do not isolate just reeled slots but consider all electronic games a 'slot.' Therefore my return percentages should not be expected to agree with those reported by the casinos or regulators. As far as I know mine is the only source to isolate just the return of reeled slots.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Rob Feldheim for helping with the slot play and record keeping. Rob helped me with most of the casinos on the east side of town and part of downtown. I would also like to thank par Sheet Pete (not his real name)for providing the par sheets, without which this project would not have been possible.
Internal Links
Go to slot machine appendix3B (Jean/Primm slot returns).
Go to slot machine appendix 3D(Henderson slot returns).
Go to slot machine appendix 3E(Las Vegas quarter and dollar slot returns).
Go to slot machine appendix 3F(Montreal slot return).
Go back to slot machines.
External Links
The main-stream media has covered this study in depth. Here are links to some articles.
- Turning'em loose, an article that appeared in the Las VegasReview Journal on May 19, 2002, about the possible effectsof this study.
- One-Armed Bandit or Robin Hood?, an article by myself for Contingencies Magazine explaining the methodology, results, and weaknesses of the study.
- Play by the rules and the one-armed bandits will still win. Boston Globe article about slot machines, in which my Las Vegas survey is mentioned and my advice quoted. (cache)
Written by: Michael Shackleford